speculation


Quinlan Associates: Bitcoin Price will Crash to $1,800 in 2018 | BTCMANAGER

Bitcoin Predicted to Crash in 2018
In their 156-page report titled “Fool’s Gold: Unearthing The World of Cryptocurrency,” the firm comprehensively stated that the current bitcoin price above $14,000 is a bubble and does not reflect the true worth of the cryptocurrency. Quinlan associates argued in their write-up that the current price is unreal for bitcoin both as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
The report read:
“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”


How Likely Is It That Bitcoin Will Hit $500k In Three Years? – TECHAED

Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years? originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world.

Answer by Vladimir Novakovski, 8.5 years in hedge funds, on Quora:

It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.

So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.
First, we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of Dec 2017 is about $15,000, we’d get $15,000/$500,000 = 3%.

Another approach is to model price as a lognormal process, which is a reasonable assumption to make for a broad set of assets. See Why do prices and income follow a log-normal distribution?

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