Last week the trustee for Mt. Gox released a statement (scroll down to get to an English translation) that it had sold about $400 million worth of Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash between December 18 last year and February 5. This was done to generate proceeds to pay back Bitcoin owners and creditors due to Mt. Gox being hacked in February 2014, when 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen.
Bitcoin bull Tom Lee, the only Wall Street strategist covering Bitcoin and the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, recently created a “Bitcoin Misery Index.” The index works like most sentiment indicators, and is meant to be a contrarian one. This means that when it’s low, it’s time to buy the cryptocurrency. The index ranges from 0 to 100, and is now at 18.8.
According to Tom Lee, when the misery index hits “misery” (falls below 27), bitcoin sees “the best 12-month performance.” In the past, bitcoin has experienced several bull runs after falling below the 27 mark. Its current value of 18.8 is the lowest it’s been since September 6, 2011.
The Bitcoin Misery Index takes into account several factors. Among them are the number of winning trades out of the total, and the cryptocurrency’s volatility, according to Tom Lee. He said:
“The BMI [Bitcoin Misery Index] is telling us to keep the negative headlines in perspective. When the BMI is at a ‘misery’ level, future returns are very good.”
Current contract expires on Wednesday
The Cboe currently has four monthly Bitcoin contracts available. The closest one expires this Wednesday, and just over the past week it traded between $8,380 at its low point to $11,710 at its high, a 28.4% range. One news item that created this volatility was the SEC announcing that cryptocurrency trading platforms needed to register with it.
Bitcoin’s price on the Cboe closed at $9,257 on Friday. Since there is no physical aspect to Bitcoin all of its contracts will need to be closed before 2:45 pm on Wednesday or settled if the investor does not buy or sell their position. While there are many factors that drive Bitcoin’s price there may be some added volatility this week , and especially on Wednesday as the contract expires.
elling intensified for digital currencies on Friday, as the price of the No. 1 cryptocurrency bitcoin fell below $9,000 to end a woeful week.
The price of a single bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.64% fell 3.6% to $8,981.03, but bounced off a low of $8,370.80, according to CoinDesk. For the week, bitcoin was down around 20%.
Other cryptocurrencies followed bitcoin lower. Ether is down 0.1% at $702.72, bitcoin cash is off 2.6% to $1,010.38 and Litecoin, after dipping to $160.43, is back in the green, up 6.2% at $188.28, according to CoinDesk.
Ripple, after falling 10% has recovered to be unchanged on the day at $0.83, according to CoinDesk.
The continued slide in bitcoin comes after a sharp drop on Thursday, which some suggested were due to technical factors.
Bitcoin is pretty cheap to send right now – cheaper than ethereum in some instances. It’s currently around 10 satoshis per byte to send BTC, which works out at approximately 30 cents for a typical transaction. Many bitcoin users only send cryptocurrency when withdrawing it from an exchange, however, to a wallet they control or to another exchange. And with cryptocurrency exchanges setting their own fees, the recent cost savings haven’t filtered through to users. Up until last week, it still cost around $10 to withdraw BTC from an exchange such as Kucoin or Binance. While the former has yet to lower its fees, Binance has.
Icelandic police have arrested 11 people, including a security guard, in connection with a string of burglaries across the island’s data centers, with criminals targeting cryptocurrency mining servers.
Approximately 600 servers worth almost $2 million were stolen in four raids in December and January, with police yet to locate the stolen equipment.
As predicted, bitcoin crossed above its 50-day moving average.
Studies of historical returns suggests favorable risk-reward owning bitcoin after it crosses above its 200 and 50-day moving average, following an extended period of weakness.
Fundamental developments remain strong.
Bitcoin started the week strong, gaining as much as 3.1% on Monday, March 5, to sustain what has so far been a five-day trek into the green. For every day in March, bitcoin has moved higher, according to data from Coinmarketcap. The No. 1 cryptocurrency by market cap surpassed the $11,000 mark on Friday, March 2, and has remained well ahead of the benchmark since then.
On Monday, bitcoin was joined by most of the top cryptocurrencies in its gains….
The likelihood of bitcoin prices falling to $100 is greater than that of the digital currency trading at $100,000 a decade from now, Harvard University professor and economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.
“I think bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now if we’re headed out 10 years from now … I would see $100 as being a lot more likely than $100,000 ten years from now,” Rogoff told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“Basically, if you…
Special Report | The Cryptocurrency-Asset Bubble — World Economic Forum Davos 2018